Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation.

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dc.contributor.author Gosling, S en
dc.contributor.author McGregor, Glenn en
dc.contributor.author Paldy, A en
dc.date.accessioned 2012-03-18T19:02:55Z en
dc.date.issued 2007 en
dc.identifier.citation International Journal of Biometeorology 51(6):525-540 2007 en
dc.identifier.issn 0020-7128 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2292/14565 en
dc.description.abstract Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2). en
dc.publisher International Society of Biometeorology and Springer Verlag (Germany) en
dc.relation.ispartofseries International Journal of Biometeorology en
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Details obtained from http://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/issn/0020-7128/ en
dc.rights.uri https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm en
dc.title Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation. en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/s00484-007-0092-9 en
pubs.issue 6 en
pubs.begin-page 525 en
pubs.volume 51 en
dc.rights.holder Copyright: International Society of Biometeorology and Springer Verlag (Germany) en
pubs.end-page 540 en
dc.rights.accessrights http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/RestrictedAccess en
pubs.subtype Article en
pubs.elements-id 97270 en
pubs.record-created-at-source-date 2010-09-01 en


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