Abstract:
Debates around future global climate change and sea level rise and their impacts on coastal systems have sharpened the focus on effective coastal planning and management. While there is an imperative to adapt or manage coastal landscapes in the face of future change such efforts must be underpinned by a rigorous understanding of the vulnerability of the coast, a function of the physical and social dynamics. Reflecting on the state of New Zealand's commitment to vulnerability and hazard assessment we explore how science is utilised and whether management is fully embracing the complexities of coastal change. To date there are few examples of fully integrated vulnerability assessments in New Zealand. Analysis shows that the science that supports New Zealand's coastal decision making still relies on simple quantification of natural hazards. This prescriptive approach largely ignores concepts of risk and the biophysical and social complexities of the coast critical to understanding vulnerability. Further constraining effective management is the poor predictive capacity of coastal models combined with the lack of targeted science to generate new understanding of coastal dynamics at timescales of relevance to societal decision making. Such understandings must also include analysis of the community dynamics at the coast and historical contexts in which policy and decision making has occurred.
