The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: An example with heat-related mortality change estimates

ResearchSpace Repository

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Gosling, SN en
dc.contributor.author McGregor, Glenn en
dc.contributor.author Lowe, JA en
dc.date.accessioned 2012-05-27T08:00:00Z en
dc.date.issued 2012-05 en
dc.identifier.issn 0165-0009 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2292/18460 en
dc.description.abstract The majority of climate change impacts assessments account for climate change uncertainty by adopting the scenario-based approach. This typically involves assessing the impacts for a small number of emissions scenarios but neglecting the role of climate model physics uncertainty. Perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) climate simulations offer a unique opportunity to explore this uncertainty. Furthermore, PPEs mean it is now possible to make risk-based impacts estimates because they allow for a range of estimates to be presented to decision-makers, which spans the range of climate model physics uncertainty inherent from a given climate model and emissions scenario, due to uncertainty associated with the understanding of physical processes in the climate model. This is generally not possible with the scenario-based approach. Here, we present the first application of a PPE to estimate the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. By using the estimated impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in six cities, we demonstrate the benefits of quantifying climate model physics uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment over the more common scenario-based approach. We also show that the impacts are more sensitive to climate model physics uncertainty than they are to emissions scenario uncertainty, and least sensitive to whether the climate change projections are from a global climate model or a regional climate model. The results demonstrate the importance of presenting model uncertainties in climate change impacts assessments if the impacts are to be placed within a climate risk management framework. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Climatic Change en
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. en
dc.rights.uri https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm en
dc.title The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: An example with heat-related mortality change estimates en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/s10584-011-0211-9 en
pubs.issue 2 en
pubs.begin-page 217 en
pubs.volume 112 en
pubs.author-url http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0211-9 en
pubs.end-page 231 en
dc.rights.accessrights http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/RestrictedAccess en
pubs.subtype Article en
pubs.elements-id 343378 en
dc.identifier.eissn 1573-1480 en
pubs.record-created-at-source-date 2013-06-05 en


Files in this item

Find Full text

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Share

Search ResearchSpace


Advanced Search

Browse

Statistics