Systemic Impacts of Climate Change on an Eroding Coastal Region over the 21st Century

Show simple item record Dickson, Mark en Walkden, MJ en Hall, JW en 2012-03-05T21:33:58Z en 2012-05-27T22:24:18Z en 2007 en
dc.identifier.citation Climatic Change 84(2):141-166 2007 en
dc.identifier.issn 0165-0009 en
dc.identifier.uri en
dc.description.abstract A numerical model detailing the functioning and emergent behaviour of an eroding coastal system is described. Model output from a 50-km study region centred on the soft-rock shore of northeast Norfolk was verified through comparison with cliff recession rates that were extracted from historical maps spanning more than a century. Predictions were then made for the period 2000 to 2100 under combined climatic change and management scenarios. For the scenarios evaluated, the model was relatively insensitive to increases in offshore wave height and moderately sensitive to changes in wave direction, but the most important effects were associated with accelerated sea-level rise (SLR). In contrast to predictions made using a modified version of the Bruun rule, the systems model predicted rather complex responses to SLR. For instance, on some sectors of coast, whereas the Bruun rule predicted increased recession under accelerated SLR, the systems model actually predicted progradation owing to the delivery of sediment from eroding coasts up-drift. By contrast, on coasts where beaches are underlain by shore platforms, both the Bruun rule and the systems model predicted accelerated recession rates. However, explicit consideration of the interaction between beach and shore platform within the systems model indicates that these coasts have a broader range of responses and lower overall vulnerability to SLR than predicted by the Bruun rule. en
dc.publisher Springer en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Climatic Change en
dc.relation.replaces en
dc.relation.replaces 2292/12943 en
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Details obtained from en
dc.rights.uri en
dc.title Systemic Impacts of Climate Change on an Eroding Coastal Region over the 21st Century en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/s10584-006-9200-9 en
pubs.issue 2 en
pubs.begin-page 141 en
pubs.volume 84 en
dc.rights.holder Copyright: Springer en
pubs.end-page 166 en
dc.rights.accessrights en
pubs.subtype Article en
pubs.elements-id 88470 en Science en School of Environment en
pubs.record-created-at-source-date 2010-09-01 en

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