Extinction in a branching process: Why some of the fittest strategies cannot guarantee survival

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dc.contributor.author Sawaya, S en
dc.contributor.author Klaere, Steffen en
dc.date.accessioned 2012-10-23T03:26:58Z en
dc.date.issued 2014 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2292/19566 en
dc.description.abstract A standard approach for comparing biological strategies is to examine the mean and variance in reproductive success. These values rely on measures of the first two moments of the offspring distribution. Here we discuss an alternative, comparing strategies by their probability of extinction. We focus on the interplay between extinction and the moments of the offspring distribution. The probability of extinction decreases with increasing odd moments and increases with increasing even moments, a property which is intuitively clear. There is no closed form solution to calculate the probability of extinction in general, and numerical methods are often used to infer its value. Alternatively, one can use analytical approaches to generate bounds on the extinction probability. We discuss these bounds, focusing on the theory of s-convex ordering of random variables, a method primarily used in the field of actuarial sciences. This method can be used to generate "worst case scenario" distributions using the first few moments of the offspring distribution, which then lead to upper bounds on the probability of extinction. en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications en
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. en
dc.rights.uri https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm en
dc.title Extinction in a branching process: Why some of the fittest strategies cannot guarantee survival en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.identifier.doi 10.1186/2195-5832-1-10 en
pubs.issue 10 en
pubs.volume 1 en
dc.rights.accessrights http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/RestrictedAccess en
pubs.subtype Article en
pubs.elements-id 360993 en
pubs.arxiv-id 1209.2074 en
pubs.record-created-at-source-date 2012-09-21 en
pubs.online-publication-date 2014-06-16 en

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