Enhancing the Understanding of Corruption through System Dynamics Modelling: A Case Study Analysis of Pakistan

Abstract

Corruption is an extensively studied but still a contested phenomenon (Andvig et al. 2000, Kaufmann et al. 1999). Corruption is ubiquitous and has serious affects in developing countries. Over the past few decades, many studies of corruption have been carried out. These studies have mainly focused on specific characteristics such as: economic issues, legal issues, social propositions, impact on national development, and in relation to economic policy. The rationale of this research is to build initial system dynamics models of corruption so that these models can extend our understanding of corruption and act as an input to future policy-making on corruption. System dynamics is an approach to modelling and computer simulation of complex systems in social and physical sciences (Forrester 1958). The field has been extended over the last 45-50 years to model new problems, such as state instability, supply chain management, to dynamics of economic growth, software development, and to analyse different policies for nation-building etc. System dynamics modelling allows researchers to discover 'hidden' dynamics. Moreover, system dynamics provides the analyst an increased level of flexibility, as system dynamics modelling uses both theoretical understanding, as well as empirical data collection. "An important step in system dynamics modelling is to obtain the wealth of information that people hold in their heads. The mental data base is a rich source of information about the parts of a system, about the information available at different points in a system, and about the policies being followed in decision making" (Forrester 1991). Our research aims to arrive at a more nuanced understanding of corruption through understanding everyday experiences of corruption. The data for the qualitative analysis comes from 30 interviews conducted in (Islamabad) Pakistan. The specific aim of this research is to investigate how our understanding of corruption can be extended by using a system dynamics approach. This is achieved by the use of simulation modelling to explore how the social system of corruption develops its stable macro-state. Systems dynamics model of corruption developed in this study would be of use to policy makers and non-governmental organisations in understanding the complex nature of corruption.