Abstract:
A simple and intuitive method for estimating the probability distribution of cumulative earthquake losses is presented. The method is a Monte Carlo simulation which treats the occurrence of earthquake events as a random Poisson process. Examples carried out using this method show that the probabilistic s kew in cumulative loss is high for time periods corresponding to the design lives of typical buildings, and is therefore important in decision making. Deaggregation and sample loss functions in time are discussed as a way of investigating which intensity l evel events contributed most to the overall losses and how frequently these events occurred. Mathematical expressions for the coefficient of variation and skew in cumulative loss distributions are derived. Finally, limitations of the model are briefly disc ussed with the conclusion that the presented method is potentially a valuable means of conveying earthquake loss information, as an addition to an expected loss term and/or loss hazard curve.
