The development and application of a modelling system for supporting managerial decision making

Abstract

This thesis studies the potential role of formal models in providing support to the strategic-level decision processes within an organisation. Strategic activities are defined as being essentially outward looking and primarily concerned with the positioning of the organisation in its environment in the long term. The types of interaction which are of interest at this level are defined and a general mathematical framework is developed to describe these processes. Optimisation techniques which are potentially useful in the screening and evaluation of decision alternatives are also discussed. A collection of mathematical techniques will, however, remain only of theoretical interest. To be of practical assistance in the decision-making process they must be accessible to the decision maker. This can only be accomplished by means of a properly constructed computer system. A brief review of decision support systems, the field of study which is concerned with the application of computers to the decision making process, is followed by an investigation into the requirements that a computer system should fulfil if it is to be successful as a strategic-level decision aid. An overview is then given of "Stratagem", a computer system designed and built to integrate the mathematical modelling framework and the decision support concepts. Finally, two different applications of Stratagem are described to illustrate its potential role in strategic-level decision processes.