Abstract:
This thesis seeks to examine the various obstacles to peace agreements in southern Thailand. The methodology of this thesis is based on a detailed case study and hypothesis testing as to when peace agreements succeed or fail, and test them against the case of southern Thailand. The three southernmost provinces – Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat – are inhabited mainly by Malay-speaking Muslims; therefore, they are quite distinct from the nation’s Thai Buddhist majority. Since 2004 the conflict has re-emerged with unprecedented violence; and the situation has worsened because of government policy, with no end in sight. The conflict has had a significant and detrimental effect on the population, including death, violation of human rights, reduced economic productivity and social devaluation. Through the past ten years of violence, Thai governments have attempted to resolve the violence and rebuild peace in the conflict area but the governments have been unable to construct a peace agreement with the insurgents. All of these variables – commitment problems, a lack of information, spoilers – have all undermined any attempts at achieving peace with the rebels in the south. I contend that all of these variables are exacerbated, if not created, by another important factor – political instability in the capital, Bangkok. The dramatic political cleavage between what have become most popularly known as the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts has made it difficult for any peace initiative to gain serious momentum. Connected to this political contestation, the national ideology of kingly prestige and state unity have also acted to obstruct attempts at a peace settlement, with many taboos concerned with violating the national ideology. Thailand’s domestic political context leads to a lack of any meaningful third party guarantee, has motivated various actors to work as spoilers, and has generated a great deal of resistance to autonomy and I have asserted it is necessary to find a way out of the civil war in southern Thailand.