A land suitability analysis for value-added crops in contemporary and future climate conditions in Samoa, using a multi-criteria evaluation and GIS approach

Abstract

With the employment of resilient cultivation methods such as intercropping, agricultural systems in the Pacific have thrived throughout the history of human settlement in the region. In the 21st Century, uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of agriculture in the Pacific is set to increase with the decline of the agro-export industry and climate change becoming a major shaping force. Economic reforms across the region have not met the expectations of a profitable agro-export industry and this has resulted in the introduction of new strategies, such as the development of a value-added agriculture sector. Despite the favourable prospects of the value-added sector, crop production is still sensitive to the potential impacts of climate change. Strategies to improve the resilience of this agricultural system are an imperative, yet there has been limited critical reflection on value-added agriculture in the context of climate change. The Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) is a GIS-based method which has been recognised to be a valuable tool in agricultural adaptation decision-making processes. This research has employed a Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) approach in order to investigate the issue of land suitability for value-added crops under contemporary and future climate conditions. An important part of any LSA study is the evaluation of whether or not the approach is of value in a decision-making process. This research has taken a bifocal approach to this evaluation. The first part of the evaluation determines the extent to which the LSA model outputs are representative of documented areas of crop growth in Samoa, and climate and climate change variables. The second part highlights the extent to which the Future LSA for Agriculture (FLSAA) can be a valuable tool for agricultural adaptation decision-making; whilst considering the issues of spatio-temporal scale and the socio-economic, cultural and political context of decision-making in Samoa. In light of this evaluation, it is suggested that the value of the FLSAA is context and scale specific. This research contributes to an emerging body of research that seeks to reduce uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of future agricultural systems.