Abstract:
We describe the construction and validation of a dynamic discrete-time microsimulation model of older people and their consumption of health and social care. The model was designed to be used in testing policy scenarios particularly related to the balance of aged care. Individual-level data from two series of 5-yearly New Zealand national health and disability surveys respectively spanning the period 1996 to 2006 were used to inform the model. In particular the influence of long-term illness and disability (as well as socio-demographic factors) on levels of health and social care use respectively was assessed and incorporated in the model. We were able to build a working model of older people and aged care which approximated actual benchmark data. Such a model can provide a useful representation of social reality and enable scenario testing with implications for policy decision-making.