The effect of earnings management constraints on management earnings forecasts: evidence from Japan

Abstract

This thesis examines the role of earnings management constraints, as imposed by firms having higher-quality auditors and lower accounting flexibility at the beginning of the year, in managers’ ability to report less negative earnings surprises from their earnings forecasts. Earnings surprises from management earnings forecasts arise when firms’ realised earnings exceed or fall below the expected earnings of firms’ managers. This thesis argues that managers can report less negative earnings surprises through the use of two techniques: (1) upward earnings management (so that the realised earnings exceed the expected earnings); and (2) downward earnings expectation adjustments (so that the expected earnings fall below the realised earnings). Managers’ incentives to choose upward earnings management over downward earnings expectation adjustments decrease with the degree of earnings management constraints at year t-1. This thesis hypothesises that (1) ceteris paribus, firms with higher-quality auditors at year t-1 are more likely to use downward earnings expectation adjustments in order to report less negative earnings surprises for year t; and (2) ceteris paribus, firms with lower accounting flexibility at year t-1 are more likely to use downward earnings expectation adjustments in order to report less negative earnings surprises for year t. These hypotheses are tested in a unique economy, Japan, where nearly all firms’ managers provide earnings forecasts. Univariate and multivariate analyses of this thesis provide evidence that supports the following conclusions. First, managers of firms with higher-quality auditors and lower accounting flexibility at the beginning of the year are associated with less negative earnings surprises at the end of the year. Second, managers of firms with higher-quality auditors at the beginning of the year use downward earnings expectation adjustments, although the magnitude of these adjustments is lower than the adjustments by firms with lower-quality auditors at the beginning of the year. Third, managers of firms with lower accounting flexibility at the beginning of the year do not consistently use downward earnings expectation adjustments throughout the year to report less negative earnings surprises. Specifically, these firms are more likely to use downward earnings expectation adjustments at the second quarter of the year. Additional tests are conducted to analyse whether the main results are sensitive to alternative specifications of the model. The scope of these tests also extends to other quality aspects of management earnings forecasts and auditing, namely, forecast accuracy and auditor switching, respectively. Overall, these additional analyses indicate that the main results hold after the following empirical considerations are made: (1) self-selection bias; (2) alternative deflators for the response variables; and (3) alternative measures of audit quality and accounting flexibility. The analysis of forecast accuracy reveals that managers of firms with higher-quality auditors at the beginning of the year are more likely to issue accurate earnings forecasts. However, managers of firms with lower accounting flexibility at the beginning of the year are less likely to issue accurate earnings forecasts. The analysis of auditor switches shows firms that switch from lower-quality auditors to higher-quality auditors at the beginning of the year are more likely to report less negative earnings surprises.