The past, present and future distribution of a deep-sea shrimp in the Southern Ocean

Abstract

Shrimps have a widespread distribution across the shelf, slope and seamount regions of the Southern Ocean. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity and adaptability in response to environmental change. We use species distribution models to predict changes in the geographic range of the deep-sea Antarctic shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes under changing climatic conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present and to the year 2100. The present distribution range indicates a pole-ward shift of the shrimp population since the last glaciation. This occurred by colonization of slopes from nearby refugia located around the northern part of Scotia Arc, southern tip of South America, South Georgia, Bouvet Island, southern tip of the Campbell plateau and Kerguelen plateau. By 2100, the shrimp are likely to expand their distribution in east Antarctica but have a continued pole-ward contraction in west Antarctica. The range extension and contraction process followed by the deep-sea shrimp provide a geographic context of how other deep-sea Antarctic species may have survived during the last glaciation and may endure with projected changing climatic conditions in the future.