A comparison between wavelet based static and dynamic neural network approaches for runoff prediction

Abstract

In order to predict runoff accurately from a rainfall event, the multilayer perceptron type of neural network models are commonly used in hydrology. Furthermore, the wavelet coupled multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) models has also been found superior relative to the simple neural network models which are not coupled with wavelet. However, the MLPNN models are considered as static and memory less networks and lack the ability to examine the temporal dimension of data. Recurrent neural network models, on the other hand, have the ability to learn from the preceding conditions of the system and hence considered as dynamic models. This study for the first time explores the potential of wavelet coupled time lagged recurrent neural network (TLRNN) models for runoff prediction using rainfall data. The Discrete Wavelet Transformation (DWT) is employed in this study to decompose the input rainfall data using six of the most commonly used wavelet functions. The performance of the simple and the wavelet coupled static MLPNN models is compared with their counterpart dynamic TLRNN models. The study found that the dynamic wavelet coupled TLRNN models can be considered as alternative to the static wavelet MLPNN models. The study also investigated the effect of memory depth on the performance of static and dynamic neural network models. The memory depth refers to how much past information (lagged data) is required as it is not known a priori. The db8 wavelet function is found to yield the best results with the static MLPNN models and with the TLRNN models having small memory depths. The performance of the wavelet coupled TLRNN models with large memory depths is found insensitive to the selection of the wavelet function as all wavelet functions have similar performance.