Abstract:
Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-feeding insect native to Australia that has become a serious global pest of Eucalyptus species. To date, T. peregrinus has been found in more than 10 countries across Europe, Africa, South America and Oceania. In the present study, we used the climate modelling software CLIMEX (Hearne Scientific Software Pty Ltd, Australia) to predict the potential distribution of T. peregrinus globally and in New Zealand. CLIMEX parameters were based on experimental data obtained in the present study and from records collated from the insect’s native and invasive distribution. The model of the potential native geographical distribution closely agrees with the known distribution of T. peregrinus and predicts potential expansion into more tropical areas of Australia. In New Zealand, the predicted potential distribution of T. peregrinus matches its current distribution and predicts that, if a suitable host is present, the species will be able to establish in most of the North Island and in northern and eastern regions of the South Island. Globally, the model predicts that many of the world’s temperate, Mediterranean and subtropical areas are climatically suitable for establishment of T. peregrinus. This predicted distribution closely matches the global distribution of eucalypt plantations, which are essential for the establishment of this pest. CLIMEX projections of potential suitability for T. peregrinus reported in the present study may prove useful for risk assessments and for the identification of areas susceptible to invasion by this pest.
