Visualizing chance: Tackling conditional probability misconceptions

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dc.contributor.author Budgett, Stephanie en
dc.contributor.author Pfannkuch, Maxine en
dc.coverage.spatial Hamburg en
dc.date.accessioned 2017-04-19T23:09:46Z en
dc.date.issued 2016-07-29 en
dc.identifier.citation 13th International Congress on Mathematics Education, Hamburg, 24 Jul 2016 - 31 Jul 2016. 29 Jul 2016 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2292/32596 en
dc.description.abstract Probabilistic reasoning is essential for us to operate sensibly and optimally in the 21st century. However, research suggests that students have many difficulties in understanding conditional probabilities and that Bayesian-type problems are replete with misconceptions such as the base rate fallacy and confusion of the inverse. Using a dynamic pachinkogram, a visual representation of the traditional probability tree, we explore six undergraduate probability students’ reasoning processes as they interact with this tool. Initial findings suggest that in simulating a screening situation, the ability to vary the branch widths of the pachinkogram may have the potential to convey the impact of the base rate. Furthermore, we conjecture that the representation afforded by the pachinkogram may help to clarify the distinction between probabilities with inverted conditions. en
dc.description.uri http://www.statlit.org/pdf/2016-ICME13-Sessions-TSG15-ALL.pdf en
dc.relation.ispartof 13th International Congress on Mathematics Education en
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. en
dc.rights.uri https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm en
dc.title Visualizing chance: Tackling conditional probability misconceptions en
dc.type Conference Item en
pubs.finish-date 2016-07-31 en
pubs.start-date 2016-07-24 en
dc.rights.accessrights http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/RestrictedAccess en
pubs.subtype Conference Paper en
pubs.elements-id 608862 en
dc.relation.isnodouble 1259901 *
pubs.org-id Science en
pubs.org-id Statistics en
pubs.record-created-at-source-date 2017-01-19 en


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