September Arctic sea ice extent indicated by June reflected solar radiation

Show simple item record Zhan, Y en Davies, Roger en 2017-07-09T21:37:12Z en 2017-02-27 en
dc.identifier.citation Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122(4):2194-2202 27 Feb 2017 en
dc.identifier.issn 2169-8996 en
dc.identifier.uri en
dc.description.abstract The predictability of the minimum sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic in September, especially for large anomaly years, is of strong current interest, given the rapid decline in sea ice amount. Our results show that June reflected solar radiation (RSR) is closely related to the underlying sea ice condition in that month and can be used to achieve September SIE predictions with good accuracy. The correlation coefficient between detrended June RSR and September SIE reaches 0.91 based on 16 year satellite observations, and the relatively high forecast skill using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 reanalysis data is similar to or better than other complex prediction models. The results confirm the particular importance of the early summer sea ice state and help to explain the abrupt declines of September SIE in the 21st century (2007 and 2012). en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres en
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Details obtained from en
dc.rights.uri en
dc.title September Arctic sea ice extent indicated by June reflected solar radiation en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.identifier.doi 10.1002/2016JD025819 en
pubs.issue 4 en
pubs.begin-page 2194 en
pubs.volume 122 en
dc.description.version VoR - Version of Record en
dc.rights.holder Copyright: American Geophysical Union en
pubs.end-page 2202 en
pubs.publication-status Published en
dc.rights.accessrights en
pubs.subtype Article en
pubs.elements-id 616602 en Science en Physics en
pubs.record-created-at-source-date 2017-07-10 en 2017-02-21 en

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