Abstract:
This paper models the demographic and psychological correlates of voter preference in two independent datasets collected in 2014: a random digit-dial survey conducted by research firm Colmar Brunton for Television New Zealand (N=7,830), and a national probability postal survey: the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (NZAVS; N=10,581). Together, these data allow us to uncover not only the consistent demographic factors, but also the psychological variables that predict voter sentiment. A standard set of demographic variables were statistically significant predictors: ethnicity, age, gender, and income. However, the NZAVS data showed that education, local area deprivation, being on the Māori electoral roll, and sexual orientation should also be taken into account. Additionally, all of the Big-Six personality traits, Nationalism, and Patriotism predicted voter sentiment. This paper provides reliable statistical data by utilizing two independent, large-scale, national probability samples to document important demographic and psychological differences in voter preference in New Zealand.
