Visualizing chance: Tackling conditional probability misconceptions

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dc.contributor.author Budgett, Stephanie en
dc.contributor.author Pfannkuch, Maxine en
dc.contributor.editor Burrill, G en
dc.contributor.editor Ben-Zvi, D en
dc.date.accessioned 2019-02-26T22:30:50Z en
dc.date.issued 2019 en
dc.identifier.isbn 978-3-030-03472-6 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2292/45432 en
dc.description.abstract Probabilistic reasoning is essential for operating sensibly and optimally in the 21st century. However, research suggests that students have many difficulties in understanding conditional probabilities and that Bayesian-type problems are replete with misconceptions such as the base rate fallacy and confusion of the inverse. Using a dynamic pachinkogram, a visual representation of the traditional probability tree, we explore six undergraduate probability students’ reasoning processes as they interact with this tool. Initial findings suggest that in simulating a screening situation, the ability to vary the branch widths of the pachinkogram may have the potential to convey the impact of the base rate. Furthermore, we conjecture that the representation afforded by the pachinkogram may help to clarify the distinction between probabilities with inverted conditions. en
dc.publisher Springer Nature Switzerland AG en
dc.relation.ispartof Topics and trends in current statistics education research: International perspectives en
dc.relation.ispartofseries ICME-13 Monographs en
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. en
dc.rights.uri https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm en
dc.title Visualizing chance: Tackling conditional probability misconceptions en
dc.type Book Item en
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/978-3-030-03472-6_1 en
pubs.begin-page 3 en
dc.rights.holder Copyright: The author en
pubs.author-url https://books.google.co.nz/books?id=odmBDwAAQBAJ en
pubs.end-page 25 en
pubs.place-of-publication Cham, Switzerland en
dc.rights.accessrights http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/RestrictedAccess en
pubs.elements-id 759622 en
dc.relation.isnodouble 647358 *
pubs.org-id Science en
pubs.org-id Statistics en
pubs.number 1 en
pubs.record-created-at-source-date 2019-01-15 en
pubs.online-publication-date 2018-12-30 en


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