Are the benefits of aspirin likely to exceed the risk of major bleeds among people in whom aspirin is recommended for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease?

Abstract

AIM:The 2018 New Zealand Consensus Statement on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management recommends the use of aspirin in people aged less than 70 years with a five-year CVD risk >15% but without prior CVD. We determined whether the estimated number of CVD events avoided by taking aspirin is likely to exceed the number of additional major bleeds caused by aspirin in this patient population. METHOD:Major bleeding rates were obtained from the PREDICT primary care study, a large New Zealand cohort of people eligible for CVD risk assessment, after excluding those with no other indications for (eg, established CVD) or contraindications/cautions (eg, prior major bleed) to aspirin use. We modelled the benefits (CVD events avoided) and harms (additional major bleeds) of aspirin for primary prevention of CVD over five years using hypothetical populations aged 40 to 79 years, stratified by sex, age-group and estimated five-year CVD risk. Two clinical scenarios were modelled, according to whether or not optimisation of lipid- and blood pressure-lowering therapy was required prior to aspirin initiation. RESULTS:In both clinical scenarios the number of CVD events prevented by aspirin over five years was estimated to be, on average, more than the number of bleeds caused by aspirin among people aged less than 70 years with estimated five-year CVD risk of >15%. However, the magnitude of the net benefit of aspirin was modest among people aged 60-69 years, particularly if lipid- and blood pressure-lowering therapy had not already been optimised. CONCLUSION:The benefits of aspirin are likely to exceed the risk of major bleeds among people in whom aspirin is recommended for the primary prevention of CVD. A more cautious approach to the use of aspirin is appropriate for people aged 60-69 years who are likely to have a smaller net benefit from aspirin, particularly those in whom lipid- and blood pressure-lowering therapy has not already been optimised or who have other bleeding risk factors, such as diabetes or smoking. More specific recommendations will be possible when bleeding risk equations are developed to complement the recently developed New Zealand CVD risk equations.