Doing the numbers: Using longitudinal insights and workforce predictions to model future workforce needs for General Practice

Abstract

Introduction/background: The shortage of General Practitioners (GPs) in New Zealand (NZ) is well-documented and publicised. However, we have little recent knowledge about the career intentions of recent medical graduates, how their intentions correlate with current workforce predictions, and the factors that might predict or motivate their choice of a GP career. Aim/objectives: To identify influential or predictive factors associated with an interest in GP career choice for doctors three years post-graduation (PGY3) and to compare alignment of interest with workforce predictions. Methods Using data from the NZ-arm of the Medical Student Outcome Database longitudinal tracking study (MSOD), key results from analysis of linked cohort data will be presented and discussed. Analysis is being undertaken to determine the patterns of GP career interest at PGY3, and which background factors, personal characteristics, medical school experiences, and experiences working as a doctor predict a medical graduate’s interest in, and intentions to pursue, a career in the specialty of General Practice. Results: Early results indicate that 31% of medical graduates at PGY3 have an intention to train as a GP, with NZ-born and NZ Māori graduates more likely to choose this career path. Interestingly, those who completed a GP rotation at PGY1 were less likely to choose GP at PGY3. These results will be updated and contrasted with NZ national MSOD data, and compared to current government-projected workforce needs. Discussion Knowing more about the factors that predict an interest in a General Practice career may help guide the various stakeholders in addressing GP shortages.