Understanding species distribution in dynamic populations: a new approach using spatio-temporal point process models

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dc.contributor.author Soriano-Redondo, A en
dc.contributor.author Jones-Todd, Charlotte en
dc.contributor.author Bearhop, S en
dc.contributor.author Hilton, GM en
dc.contributor.author Lock,, L en
dc.contributor.author Stanbury, A en
dc.contributor.author Votier, SC en
dc.contributor.author Illian, JB en
dc.date.accessioned 2019-10-05T08:01:30Z en
dc.date.issued 2019-06 en
dc.identifier.issn 0906-7590 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2292/48398 en
dc.description.abstract Understanding and predicting a species’ distribution across a landscape is of central importance in ecology, biogeography and conservation biology. However, it presents daunting challenges when populations are highly dynamic (i.e. increasing or decreasing their ranges), particularly for small populations where information about ecology and life history traits is lacking. Currently, many modelling approaches fail to distinguish whether a site is unoccupied because the available habitat is unsuitable or because a species expanding its range has not arrived at the site yet. As a result, habitat that is indeed suitable may appear unsuitable. To overcome some of these limitations, we use a statistical modelling approach based on spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox processes. These model the spatial distribution of the species across available habitat and how this distribution changes over time, relative to covariates. In addition, the model explicitly accounts for spatio‐temporal dynamics that are unaccounted for by covariates through a spatio‐temporal stochastic process. We illustrate the approach by predicting the distribution of a recently established population of Eurasian cranes Grus grus in England, UK, and estimate the effect of a reintroduction in the range expansion of the population. Our models show that wetland extent and perimeter‐to‐area ratio have a positive and negative effect, respectively, in crane colonisation probability. Moreover, we find that cranes are more likely to colonise areas near already occupied wetlands and that the colonisation process is progressing at a low rate. Finally, the reintroduction of cranes in SW England can be considered a human‐assisted long‐distance dispersal event that has increased the dispersal potential of the species along a longitudinal axis in S England. Spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox process models offer an excellent opportunity for the study of species where information on life history traits is lacking, since these are represented through the spatio‐temporal dynamics reflected in the model. en
dc.publisher Wiley en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Ecography en
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. en
dc.rights.uri https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm en
dc.title Understanding species distribution in dynamic populations: a new approach using spatio-temporal point process models en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.identifier.doi 10.1111/ecog.03771 en
pubs.issue 6 en
pubs.begin-page 1092 en
pubs.volume 42 en
dc.rights.holder Copyright: The author en
pubs.end-page 1102 en
dc.rights.accessrights http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/RestrictedAccess en
pubs.subtype Article en
pubs.elements-id 776608 en
pubs.org-id Science en
pubs.org-id Statistics en
pubs.record-created-at-source-date 2019-07-16 en

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