Shifting relations : New Zealand and China since 1949

Abstract

The current Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between New Zealand and China is a contrast to the relationship between the two countries before the mid-1990s. From 1972 a steady increase in trade and political contact ensued, yet prior to diplomatic recognition China was condemned as hostile by New Zealand leaders. From the mid-1990s, interaction intensified with significant increases in trade, political contact, people-to-people links and a number of diplomatic firsts over subsequent decades. This thesis explains how these shifts occurred – uncovering the causal factors in the development of New Zealand-China relations from 1949 to 2019. Using a mixture of process tracing and general theory, this thesis argues New Zealand and Chinese interests converged in the 1990s after both countries embraced tenets of neo-liberal economics. This is supported via ideational shifts. In contrast to the Western-oriented relationships of its past, closer engagement with China emphasises New Zealand’s identity as an independent-oriented, small trading nation. China’s governing legitimacy, once entirely based in socialist ideology, is now underpinned by both economic modernisation and nationalist sentiment. While this has seen China become a responsible stakeholder in the world system, it has also dictated leaders defend challenges against territory and sovereignty, at times conflicting with New Zealand’s commitment to liberal, democratic values. Further development between New Zealand and China is dependent on how China balances these two pillars of legitimacy, and how New Zealanders and New Zealand leaders respond.