Using longitudinal insights to model future workforce needs for General Practice in New Zealand

Abstract

Objective The shortage of General Practitioners (GPs) in New Zealand (NZ) is well-documented and publicised. However, we have little recent knowledge about the career intentions of recent medical graduates, how their intentions correlate with current workforce predictions, and the factors that might predict or motivate their choice of a GP career. This will be explored using longitudinal data to identify influential or predictive factors associated with an interest in GP career choice and to compare alignment of interest with workforce predictions. Methods Using data from the NZ Medical Student Outcome Database longitudinal tracking study (MSOD), key results from analysis of linked cohort data will be presented and discussed to establish which background factors, medical school experiences and experiences working as a doctor predict a medical graduate’s interest in and intentions to pursue a career in the specialty of General Practice. Lessons Learned Early results indicate 31% of medical graduates at PGY3 have an intention to train as a GP, with NZborn and NZ Māori graduates more likely to choose this career path. However, workforce data suggests this is insufficient for future need. Interestingly, those who completed a GP rotation at PGY1 were less likely to choose GP at PGY3. These results will be updated and contrasted with NZ national MSOD data, and compared to current government-projected workforce needs. Implications Knowing more about the factors that predict an interest in a General Practice career, and current patterns of medical graduate intentions, may help guide the various stakeholders in addressing GP shortages.