Housing prices and expectations: a study of Auckland

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dc.contributor.author Yang, Yang en
dc.contributor.author Zhou, MQ en
dc.contributor.author Rehm, Michael en
dc.date.accessioned 2020-05-14T04:52:59Z en
dc.date.issued 2020 en
dc.identifier.issn 1753-8270 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2292/50700 en
dc.description.abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the study aims to test whether expectations are adaptive in the Auckland housing market. The second purpose is to examine the interplay between expectations and Auckland housing prices. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, two vector error correction models (VECM) are built: one VECM includes survey-based expectations and another one encompasses model-based expectations with the assumption that property investors’ expectations are adaptive. The paper goes on by comparing and examining the results of Granger causality tests and impulse response analyses. Findings – The findings reveal that Auckland property buyers’ expectations are adaptive. In addition, this study provides some evidence of a feedback cycle between Auckland housing prices and expectations. Research limitations/implications – This study posits that Auckland property buyers’ expectations in the next 12 months are based on three-year price movements with more emphasis being placed on recent price history. This assumption may not be an accurate reflection of true expectations. Practical implications – This paper helps policymakers to deepen their understanding of Auckland property buyers by showing that their expectations form through the extrapolation of the past price trend. Originality/value – The study possibly marks the first attempt to test and compare the relationship between housing prices and two forms of expectations: survey-based and model-based. Additionally, this study is probably the first one that empirically examines whether there is a feedback cycle between expectations and property prices in the Auckland housing market. en
dc.relation.ispartofseries International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis en
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. en
dc.rights.uri https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm en
dc.title Housing prices and expectations: a study of Auckland en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.identifier.doi 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2019-0122 en
pubs.volume online first en
dc.rights.holder Copyright: The author en
dc.rights.accessrights http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/RestrictedAccess en
pubs.subtype Article en
pubs.elements-id 794907 en
pubs.org-id Business and Economics en
pubs.org-id Property en
pubs.record-created-at-source-date 2020-02-19 en
pubs.online-publication-date 2020-01-27 en


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