Radiobiological parameters in a tumour control probability model for prostate cancer LDR brachytherapy

Abstract

To provide recommendations for the selection of radiobiological parameters for prostate cancer treatment planning. Recommendations were based on validation of the previously published values, parameter estimation and a consideration of their sensitivity within a tumour control probability (TCP) model using clinical outcomes data from low-dose-rate (LDR) brachytherapy. The proposed TCP model incorporated radiosensitivity (α) heterogeneity and a non-uniform distribution of clonogens. The clinical outcomes data included 849 prostate cancer patients treated with LDR brachytherapy at four Australian centres between 1995 and 2012. Phoenix definition of biochemical failure was used. Validation of the published values from four selected literature and parameter estimation was performed with a maximum likelihood estimation method. Each parameter was varied to evaluate the change in calculated TCP to quantify the sensitivity of the model to its radiobiological parameters. Using a previously published parameter set and a total clonogen number of 196 000 provided TCP estimates that best described the patient cohort. Fitting of all parameters with a maximum likelihood estimation was not possible. Variations in prostate TCP ranged from 0.004% to 0.67% per 1% change in each parameter. The largest variation was caused by the log-normal distribution parameters for α (mean, , and standard deviation, σ α ). Based on the results using the clinical cohort data, we recommend a previously published dataset is used for future application of the TCP model with inclusion of a patient-specific, non-uniform clonogen density distribution which could be derived from multiparametric imaging. The reduction in uncertainties in these parameters will improve the confidence in using biological models for clinical radiotherapy planning.