Challenge from Transpower: Determining the effect of the aggregated behaviour of solar photovoltaic power generation and battery energy storage systems on grid exit point load in order to maintain an accurate load forecast

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dc.contributor.author Hassell Sweatman, Catherine Zoe Wollaston
dc.contributor.author Wichitaksorn, N
dc.contributor.author Jiang, A
dc.contributor.author Farrell, Troy
dc.contributor.author Bootland, N
dc.contributor.author Miskell, G
dc.contributor.author Pritchard, G
dc.contributor.author Chrystall, C
dc.contributor.author Robinson, G
dc.date.accessioned 2021-05-24T02:05:47Z
dc.date.available 2021-05-24T02:05:47Z
dc.date.issued 2020-6-25
dc.identifier.citation ANZIAM Journal 60:m1-m40 25 Jun 2020
dc.identifier.issn 1446-1811
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/2292/55130
dc.description.abstract <jats:p>With limited data beyond the grid exit point (GXP) or substation level, how can Transpower determine the effect of the aggregated behaviour of solar photovoltaic power generation and battery energy storage systems on GXP load in order to maintain an accurate load forecast? In this initial study it is assumed that the GXP services a residential region. An algorithm based on non-linear programming, which minimises the financial cost to the consumer, is developed to model consumer behaviour. Input data comprises forecast energy requirements (load), solar irradiance, and pricing. Output includes both the load drawn from the grid and power returned to the grid. The algorithm presented is at the household level. The next step would be to combine the load drawn from the grid and the power returned to the grid from all the households serviced by a GXP, enabling Transpower to make load predictions. Various means of load forecasting are considered including the Holt--Winters methods which perform well for out-of-sample forecasts. Linear regression, which takes into account comparable days, solar radiation, and air temperature, yields even better performance. </jats:p>
dc.publisher Australian Mathematical Publishing Association, Inc.
dc.relation.ispartofseries ANZIAM Journal
dc.rights Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
dc.rights.uri https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm
dc.rights.uri https://journal.austms.org.au/ojs/index.php/ANZIAMJ/about
dc.subject 01 Mathematical Sciences
dc.subject 09 Engineering
dc.title Challenge from Transpower: Determining the effect of the aggregated behaviour of solar photovoltaic power generation and battery energy storage systems on grid exit point load in order to maintain an accurate load forecast
dc.type Journal Article
dc.identifier.doi 10.21914/anziamj.v60i0.14619
pubs.begin-page m1
pubs.volume 60
dc.date.updated 2021-04-19T22:18:18Z
dc.rights.holder Copyright: Australian Mathematical Society en
pubs.end-page m40
pubs.publication-status Published online
dc.rights.accessrights http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/RetrictedAccess en
pubs.elements-id 848096
dc.identifier.eissn 1445-8810
pubs.online-publication-date 2020-6-25


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