Perceived and Real Water Competency and Drowning Risk Among Adults in Open Water: A Wicked Problem

Abstract

Any competency base required to survive a drowning situation is dynamic, complex, and multi-faceted. Traditional understanding of survivability has been based on swimming competency, determined simplistically by how far a person can swim. However, swimming ability alone is unlikely to offer much protection from drowning. Rather, a more complex understanding of water competencies involved is needed, especially in respect to the high incidence of adult drowning in high-income countries. This research addresses this need through a series of studies aimed at examining the gap between perception and reality. In the first study (Stanley & Moran, 2017), over one-half (58%) of parents and caregivers estimated they were good swimmers, yet more than half (55%) could swim less than 25 m. Most (87%) estimated their child was a good swimmer, although most (74%) could swim less than 25 m. Most parents (59%) and children (81%) had not swum their estimated distance in open water, yet one-half (51%) believed their child safe in open water. In Study Two (Stanley & Moran, 2018) among adult minority groups, most (70%) perceived themselves as good swimmers despite most (73%) estimating they could not swim more than 25 m, and most (73%) relying on that level of competence to keep themselves safe. In Study Three (Stanley & Moran, in-press), although older adults were less likely than two younger age groups to estimate themselves as proficient swimmers (46%, vs. 66% and 73%), there was little change in safer risk perceptions and attitudes. In Study Four, adults’ perceived water competence was measured against their actual water competence in closed and open water environments. Despite most adults (98%) unable to swim more than 100 m in open water, more than half (59%) perceived themselves as good swimmers, and more than quarter (27%) thought they could swim more than 200 m. In conclusion, reality gaps were found in water competence among adult groups, especially in open water settings. Differences between perceived and actual competence have underestimated the risk and overestimated their competency. This provides a plausible explanation of why many adults drown. Relationships with water safety attitudes, opinions, and risk perceptions are discussed to provide recommendations for prevention of adult drowning.