dc.contributor.author |
Nguyen, Trung |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Adnan, Mehnaz |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Nguyen, Binh P |
|
dc.contributor.author |
de Ligt, Joep |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Geoghegan, Jemma L |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Dean, Richard |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Jefferies, Sarah |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Baker, Michael G |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Seah, Winston Kg |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Sporle, Andrew A |
|
dc.contributor.author |
French, Nigel Peter |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Murdoch, David R |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Welch, David |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Simpson, Colin R |
|
dc.coverage.spatial |
England |
|
dc.date.accessioned |
2021-10-05T05:03:44Z |
|
dc.date.available |
2021-10-05T05:03:44Z |
|
dc.date.issued |
2021-10 |
|
dc.identifier.citation |
The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific 15:100256 Oct 2021 |
|
dc.identifier.issn |
2666-6065 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
https://hdl.handle.net/2292/56781 |
|
dc.description.abstract |
<b>Background:</b> COVID-19 elimination measures, including border closures have been applied in New Zealand. We have modelled the potential effect of vaccination programmes for opening borders. <b>Methods:</b> We used a deterministic age-stratified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model. We minimised spread by varying the age-stratified vaccine allocation to find the minimum herd immunity requirements (the effective reproduction number R<sub>eff</sub><1 with closed borders) under various vaccine effectiveness (VE) scenarios and R<sub>0</sub> values. We ran two-year open-border simulations for two vaccine strategies: minimising R<sub>eff</sub> and targeting high-risk groups. <b>Findings:</b> Targeting of high-risk groups will result in lower hospitalisations and deaths in most scenarios. Reaching the herd immunity threshold (HIT) with a vaccine of 90% VE against disease and 80% VE against infection requires at least 86•5% total population uptake for R<sub>0</sub>=4•5 (with high vaccination coverage for 30-49-year-olds) and 98•1% uptake for R<sub>0</sub>=6. In a two-year open-border scenario with 10 overseas cases daily and 90% total population vaccine uptake (including 0-15 year olds) with the same vaccine, the strategy of targeting high-risk groups is close to achieving HIT, with an estimated 11,400 total hospitalisations (peak 324 active and 36 new daily cases in hospitals), and 1,030 total deaths. <b>Interpretation:</b> Targeting high-risk groups for vaccination will result in fewer hospitalisations and deaths with open borders compared to targeting reduced transmission. With a highly effective vaccine and a high total uptake, opening borders will result in increasing cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Other public health and social measures will still be required as part of an effective pandemic response. <b>Funding:</b> This project was funded by the Health Research Council [20/1018]. <b>Research in context</b>. |
|
dc.format.medium |
Print-Electronic |
|
dc.language |
eng |
|
dc.publisher |
Elsevier BV |
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dc.relation.ispartofseries |
The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific |
|
dc.rights |
Items in ResearchSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Previously published items are made available in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. |
|
dc.rights.uri |
https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/docs/uoa-docs/rights.htm |
|
dc.rights.uri |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
|
dc.subject |
COVID-19 |
|
dc.subject |
Elimination |
|
dc.subject |
Herd immunity threshold |
|
dc.subject |
Modelling |
|
dc.subject |
SARS-CoV-2 |
|
dc.subject |
Vaccination |
|
dc.subject |
Vaccine effectiveness |
|
dc.title |
COVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study. |
|
dc.type |
Journal Article |
|
dc.identifier.doi |
10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100256 |
|
pubs.begin-page |
100256 |
|
pubs.volume |
15 |
|
dc.date.updated |
2021-09-03T22:39:13Z |
|
dc.rights.holder |
Copyright: The author |
en |
pubs.author-url |
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34426804 |
|
pubs.publication-status |
Accepted |
|
dc.rights.accessrights |
http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/OpenAccess |
en |
pubs.subtype |
research-article |
|
pubs.subtype |
Journal Article |
|
pubs.elements-id |
865284 |
|
dc.identifier.eissn |
2666-6065 |
|
dc.identifier.pii |
S2666-6065(21)00165-6 |
|
pubs.number |
100256 |
|