Abstract:
The Paris Agreement is widely regarded as a potential solution to the anthropogenic climate change problem.
More so, the agreement could prove vital in arid countries with high susceptibility to climate change and
severe water scarcity. As a case in point, this research studies and quantifies the benefit that the climate
action following the agreement would bring to Jordan’s future climate and water situation. Two study periods
were established; baseline (1985-2014) and future (2070-2099). Weather time series from climate stations
and secondary sources (ERA5, GPCC) were used to establish the baseline averages for nine locations around
Jordan. Meanwhile, future projections were calculated from the ensemble means of the time series of several
global climate models within the CMIP6 under the worst-case (SSP5-8.5) and the Paris Agreement (SSP1-
2.6) scenarios. Results show that the Paris Agreement could potentially save Jordan >3°C of warming in
maximum and minimum temperature above baseline averages, in conjunction with a saving of up to 66mm
in annual precipitation (or 18% on average over Jordan) and up to 10% in relative humidity. The impact on
hydrology was studied using the SWAT model for the highest renewable yield watershed (Amman-Zarqa),
and it similarly showed that the agreement would save nearly 55% in median annual groundwater recharge,
60% in median river flow, and 40% in median available water. Future Overshoot Day, defined as the day of
the year Jordan’s demand exceeds renewable supply, would be delayed by more than two months. Hence, it is
concluded that the Paris Agreement is crucial to Jordan’s future climate and water. Jordan must emphasise
that in global settings, and Overshoot Day could be a powerful, handy concept to communicate that easily.