Assessing the vulnerability of urban coastal areas near industrial facilities due to the risk of a technical accident triggered by coastal flooding

Abstract

The scope of the thesis is to present the methodology of developing a representative, composite index that contributes as a tool to assess the vulnerability of a system towards natural hazards, when the system includes activities that are dealing with hazardous substances and there is the possibility of triggering a Natural – Technical (Natech) accident. As the climate change brings new data in the research field, an evaluation tool for assessing the impact of coastal flooding is expected to have an important contribution in the urban land use planning and the related decision-making processes. The proposed index “Coastal Industrial Vulnerability Index New Zealand (CIVINZ)” focuses on some characteristics, unique to the study system, to succeed a more representative assessment of the coastal flooding vulnerability at urban domains near to industrial installations in New Zealand. The index is based on the vulnerability indices available and commonly used. For the identification of the causal factors of the issue under study, the problem tree method is used, which leads to the incorporation of innovative modules as parts of the composite index body. These modules highlight the importance in the vulnerability assessment process of factors like the presence of industrial facilities and Māori communities. The proposed index is expected to contribute to the assessment of the additional vulnerability of an area near major hazard facilities (MHF) due to an industrial accident triggered by a natural hazard, i.e., coastal flooding. The industrial activity in the urban space could affect severely the resilience of these areas and it should be considered while land use planning, as well as for risk management and mitigations measures prioritisation. Moreover, in the index body there is a dedicated module that reflects how the presence of Māori communities and culture contribute to the vulnerability assessment of a coastal urban area, due to the strong affinity of the Māori culture with the ocean. Finally, a case study that incorporates the application of the proposed index in four coastal urban areas close to MHF in New Zealand is presented to discuss the importance of the proposed modules that take into consideration the specific characteristics of the study system.