When bias contributes to variance: True limit theory in functional coefficient cointegrating regression

Abstract

Limit distribution theory in the econometric literature for functional coefficient cointegrating regression is incorrect in important ways, influencing rates of convergence, distributional properties, and practical work. The correct limit theory reveals that components from both bias and variance terms contribute to variability in the asymptotics. The errors in the literature arise because random variability in the bias term has been neglected in earlier research. In stationary regression this random variability is of smaller order and can be ignored in asymptotic analysis but not without consequences for finite sample performance. Implications of the findings for rate efficient estimation are discussed. Simulations in the Online Supplement provide further evidence supporting the new limit theory in nonstationary functional coefficient regressions.