Abstract:
This thesis explores the link between China’s domestic decision-making institutions and three of China’s broad international initiatives during the period 2012-2020. The research aim is to better understand whether and how the dynamics of China’s domestic political system have influenced China’s foreign policy decisions. The framework used to organize this research is the Neoclassical Realist conceptual framework Type III as refined in 2016 in the book Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics by Ripsman, Taliaferro, and Lobell. The core hypothesis to be tested is that while international threats and opportunities provide a context to China’s foreign policy-making, specific foreign policy decisions are made by China’s leaders influenced by their perceptions and the prevailing strategic culture working through China’s governing and social institutions.
By incorporating both international (or independent) variables and domestic (or intervening) variables, this thesis analyses three unit-level processes of perception, decision-making and policy implementation as prescribed by Ripsman et al. It examines first, how China’s leaders have perceived and interpreted threats and opportunities that have arisen in the international system; second, how domestic reforms have impacted on institutions and the roles of leaders as foreign policy decision-makers; third, how China’s dynamic social communications have affected government’s decisions; and fourth, what key characteristics of China’s strategic culture have shaped decision-makers’ foreign policy perceptions and preferences.
The thesis derives its empirical findings from content and thematic analysis of official documents and semi-structured interviews conducted in Beijing in 2019. The core hypothesis is found to be supported by the empirical evidence and therefore validated.
