Valid belief updates for prequentially additive loss functions arising in Semi-Modular Inference

Abstract

Model-based Bayesian evidence combination leads to models with multiple parameteric modules. In this setting the effects of model misspecification in one of the modules may in some cases be ameliorated by cutting the flow of information from the misspecified module. Semi-Modular Inference (SMI) is a framework allowing partial cuts which modulate but do not completely cut the flow of information between modules. We show that SMI is part of a family of inference procedures which implement partial cuts. It has been shown that additive losses determine an optimal, valid and order-coherent belief update. The losses which arise in Cut models and SMI are not additive. However, like the prequential score function, they have a kind of prequential additivity which we define. We show that prequential additivity is sufficient to determine the optimal valid and order-coherent belief update and that this belief update coincides with the belief update in each of our SMI schemes.