How climate-included variations in crop yields affect migration in India

Abstract

<jats:sec><jats:title content-type="abstract-subheading">Purpose</jats:title><jats:p> The study unravels the effects of climate-induced variations in staple crop yields on various migratory inflows in India while adjusting for seasonal weather and sociodemographic factors.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type="abstract-subheading">Design/methodology/approach</jats:title><jats:p>The instrumental variable approach is used to assess the potential effects of climate and nonclimate parameters on various migration types, exploiting panel data at the district level from the 2001 and 2011 Census years, with agriculture acting as the mediator.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type="abstract-subheading">Findings</jats:title><jats:p> As weather-driven variations in rice and wheat yield increase by 10%, the share of migration within and between districts to population decreases by 0.017 and 0.002, respectively. However, rice and wheat yields increase by 494.60 and 524.40%, respectively, with a marginal increase in the share of migration within states to population. Also, the elasticities of disadvantaged groups, literate locals and agricultural workers vary for different relocations.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type="abstract-subheading">Originality/value</jats:title><jats:p>The current study affirms climate migration through the agricultural channel at a finer spatial scale, asserting the sensitivity aspect of disparate movements to periodic weather and heterogeneous clusters. This is critical for effectively implementing targeted public policies in the face of increasing climate risks.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type="abstract-subheading">Peer review</jats:title><jats:p>The peer review history for this article is available at <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-10-2022-0710">https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-10-2022-0710</jats:ext-link></jats:p></jats:sec>