Bayesian inference on astrophysical binary inspirals based on gravitational-wave measurements

Abstract

Gravitational waves are predicted by general relativity theory. Their existence could be confirmed by astronomical observations, but until today they have not yet been measured directly. A measurement would not only confirm general relativity, but also allow for interesting astronomical observations. Great effort is currently being expended to facilitate gravitational radiation measurement, most notably through earth-bound interferometers (such as LIGO and Virgo), and the planned space-based LISA interferometer. Earth-bound interferometers have recently taken up operation, so that a detection might be made at any time, while the space-borne LISA interferometer is scheduled to be launched within the next decade.Among the most promising signals for a detection are the waves emitted by the inspiral of a binary system of stars or black holes. The observable gravitational-wave signature of such an event is determined by properties of the inspiralling system, which may in turn be inferred from theobserved data.

A Bayesian inference framework for the estimation of parameters of binary inspiral events as measured by ground- and space-based interferometers is described here. Furthermore, appropriate computational methods are developed that are necessary for its application in practice. Starting with a simplified model considering only 5 parameters and data from a single earth-bound interferometer, the model is subsequently refined by extending it to 9 parameters, measurements from several interferometers, and more accurate signal waveform approximations. A realistic joint prior density for the 9 parameters is set up. For the LISA application the model is generalised so that the noise spectrum is treated as unknown as well and can be inferred along with the signal parameters. Inference through the posterior distribution is facilitated by the implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The posterior distribution exhibits many local modes, and there is only a small "attraction region" around the global mode(s), making it hard, if not impossible, for basic MCMC algorithms to find the relevant region in parameter space. This problem is solved by introducing a parallel tempering algorithm. Closer investigation of its internal functionality yields some insight into a proper setup of this algorithm, which in turn also enables the efficient implementation for the LISA problem with its vastly enlarged parameter space. Parallel programming was used to implement this computationally expensive MCMC algorithm, so that the code can be run efficiently on a computer cluster. In this thesis, a Bayesian approach to gravitational wave astronomy is shown to be feasible and promising.